Trump has shown to the world, again, how dumb a U.S. president could be if he tries hard enough. Donald Trump is so dumb that he probably didn’t realized that he had issued a declaration of war on North Korea when he went ballistic at his first appearance at the United Nations General Assembly last week. Thanks to his big mouth, about 20,000 South Koreans (or Americans) could die – every day – if a war broke out.
In his speech last Tuesday, Trump threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea if the US was forced to defend itself or an ally. Kim Jong-un retaliated by calling Trump a “dotard” and said North Korean rockets would make a visit to the U.S. Of course, Trump wasn’t impressed and tweeted that the North Koreans “won’t be around much longer,” suggesting that the U.S. is on its way to nuke the Hermit Kingdom.
President Trump’s tweet of wiping out the North Korea from the world map is being taken seriously by Dictator Kim. On Monday North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters in New York that since U.S. President Trump has declared a war, it means North Korea has the rights to shoot down U.S. strategic bombers – even when they are not flying in North Korean airspace.
The North Korea’s foreign minister said – “The whole world should clearly remember it was the U.S. who first declared war on our country. Since the United States declared war on our country, we will have every right to make countermeasures, including the right to shoot down United States strategic bombers even when they are not inside the airspace border of our country.”
Now, Trump could be bluffing about nuking North Korea or he was dead serious about turning the whole North Korea into mushroom clouds. Either way, his bombastic language is a declaration of war, one way or another. However, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders was quick to clarify that “we have not declared war on North Korea.”
As feared by the White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, whose face palm says it all, Trump went off-script when the image of Kim Jong-un flashes in his mind. As a result of his meltdown, he went bonkers and started ranting about totally destroying the North Korea. As the Commander-in-Chief who is supposed to be calm, Trump’s impulsiveness has now made Korean War 2 possible.
A retired U.S. general, Rob Givens, has revealed to the Los Angeles Times the catastrophic scenario in case of a war in the region. Pentagon apparently had run the simulation and the picture isn’t sexy. A war with North Korea could result in about 20,000 deaths – per day – in South Korea, provided the world is lucky to see just a conventional war.
But what are the chances that a Korean War 2 could be confined to just conventional war, and not nuclear war? According to James Stavridis, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, it’s a 50/50 chance of a conventional war with North Korea. The burning question, however, is what are the chances that Rocket-Man Kim would refrain from using nuclear weapon the moment North Korea is being attacked?
The U.S. has 35,000 and 50,000 military personnel in South Korea and Japan respectively. Unless this is a wrestling match between Mr. Donald Trump and Mr. Kim Jong-un where both agree to obey referee Mr. Xi Jinping’s rules of not using nuclear weapon, it’s hard to believe a conventional Korean War 2 is remotely possible.
Those who have been watching too much Hollywood films might buy Trump’s threat that the superpower United States could “totally destroy” the hermit kingdom with ease. Pentagon’s military strategists have examined what would actually happen if a war broke out and concluded that it’s a hoax that North Korea’s nuclear capacity could be taken out in a single strike.
Rob Givens, a retired Air Force brigadier general who spent 4 years stationed on the Korean Peninsula said – “Too many Americans have the view that it would be like the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, or like combat operations in Libya or Syria, but it wouldn’t remotely resemble that.” And the former general’s assessment was based on “before” the North Koreans turning to nuclear weapons.
The scenario of a conventional war, if there is even one to begin with, was envisioned as North Korean leader Kim started the war by launching a missile that lands very near to Guam. It would be Kim’s deadliest provocation and warning to Trump, without an intention to strike the U.S. military base. President Trump would then be forced to retaliate in order not to lose face.
Aircraft carrier strike groups would be moved within range of the Korean Peninsula and airstrike similar to the attack Trump had launched on Syria – 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles – would be unleashed on North Korea. Trump, despite his promise to wipe out 25-million North Koreans from planet Earth, would instead attack the North’s coastal launch facility.
While the U.S. airstrike is intended as a message, not a challenge to a full-blown war, it would provoke Kim Jong-un to his highest level. Unlike Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, President Trump will soon find that North Korean Kim isn’t the easy meat he had imagined. Besides, Kim has to retaliate or risk being called a chicken by the Yankees.
Assuming Kim could even contain his anger from unleashing nuclear weapons, North Korea might respond by bombing 35,000 U.S. troops currently stationed in South Korea. That would be the primary target. To make things tougher for the U.S., North Korea has approximately 11,000 conventional artillery dug into the mountains north of the DMZ (demilitarized zone).
Even if the mighty U.S. tries to take out the ancient artillery, which dates back from the Soviet era, with drones and airstrikes, it would take days. That time would be fully utilized by the North Koreans to launch non-stop attacks at Seoul with its population of 10 million, presently out of range of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) system’s protection.
Again, provided Kim is cool enough not to unleash his nuclear weapons, Pentagon has estimated the potential of deaths in South Korea at 20,000 each day as the war escalates. Trump’s real challenge is to make Kim believes his regime is not collapsing once the conventional war started, because if the dictator thinks otherwise, he would take down everyone else with him.
If Kim Jong-un still remembers his father’s advice, he would do accordingly – “I would destroy the world or take the world with me before accepting defeat on the battlefield.” Sure, Trump can laugh at North Koreans’ ancient military hardware, but the hermit kingdom has more tanks than the U.S. (3.500 compared to U.S.’ 2,381) and more artillery than China, not to mention its 1.2-million soldiers.
This is consistent with what former White House Chief Strategist, Steve Bannon, had exposed. He said – “There’s no military solution (to North Korea’s nuclear threats), forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that 10 million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here. They got us.”
With the world’s 4th largest ground army, it’s also unknown if the North Koreans’ soldiers would run away like cowards the same way Iraqi Saddam Hussein’s boys were. However, Pentagon agrees that after 3 generations of Kim dynasty, the North Korea has more than 100,000 Special Forces trained to infiltrate South Korea.
Another unknown factor is whether China would enter the war to save its naughty boy as trumpeted by the Chinese news media recently. Beijing had warned Washington – “If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.”
Even if President Xi Jinping would not send in troops the same way Mao Tse-tung did in 1950 to help North Korea, the Chinese leader isn’t expected to do nothing at all. China would most likely send in its fighter jets, conducting airstrikes to prop up Kim regime in Pyongyang, the same way Russian Vladimir Putin has come to the aid of Syria’s Assad.
That would prevent the humiliation of Mr. Xi being called a traitor, coward, a U.S. lapdog and whatnot. China might treasure financial gains through its trade deficit with the U.S. on top of anything else. But it can’t watch Americans taking over the entire North Korea without firing a single bullet. It would be a political suicide to President Xi Jinping.
Source: Finance Twitter